Press Release: New data shows how migration policies are fueling the smuggling business. 

Geneva, December 4th 2025 /  A dataset of more than 80,000 interviews with refugees and migrants worldwide and over 450 interviews with smugglers in Africa reveals that hardline migration policies are strengthening — not weakening — the smuggling business. The findings are published in a new report, “How Smuggling Really Works”, by the Mixed Migration Centre (MMC) of the Danish Refugee Council, released on December 4th, ahead of the Ministerial Conference of the Global Alliance to Counter Migrant Smuggling in Brussels on 10 December. 

Read the report

How Smuggling Really Works: Drivers, Operations, and Impacts

“As policymakers gather for the second meeting of the Global Alliance to Counter Migrant Smuggling, it is essential that the discussion be guided by evidence. Governments say they want to ‘break the business model’ of smugglers, yet our data shows the opposite is happening,” says Roberto Forin, acting director of MMC. “Border enforcement without safe and legal pathways increase demand for smugglers – who raise prices, adapt quickly and expand their operations.” 

60% of 450+ smugglers we interviewed reported that demand for smuggling had increased in the year preceding the survey, and 35% of them associated this increase in demand to stricter border measures.  46% of smugglers said they changed routes in the six months prior to the interview, primarily due to changes in border security and police behaviour, and 57% said their fees had increased. Among those who increased their fees, 78% said prices rose because their activities had become riskier due to tighter government controls. 

“Many smugglers told us that stricter enforcement is actually fueling demand,” explains Dr Chloe Sydney, lead researcher for MMC. “For example, even as irregular arrivals to Italy fall, 44% of the 102 smugglers we interviewed on the Central Mediterranean Route since 2024 reported higher demand, partly because of stricter border measures.  Instead of breaking their business model, it is being boosted.” 

The data also points to widespread state complicity. Among all smugglers interviewed, 57% reported direct contact with state officials to facilitate operations, such as releasing migrants from detention centres, guiding border crossings or sharing patrol information. In a sample of 13,800 migrants and refugees who used smugglers, nearly 30% said state officials facilitated smuggling during their journey. 

Findings indicate that people with the least choice rely most on smugglers. Statistical modelling shows that people travelling through dangerous locations are over three times more likely to hire a smuggler. The most common reasons migrants and refugees gave for turning to smugglers were that they believed it would make their journey easier (44%) and that alternatives were blocked (39%) saying they had no other option. 

Despite widespread claims that smugglers ‘lure’ people into irregular migration, only 6% of migrants and refugees who used smugglers said smugglers influenced their decision to migrate, showing the smugglers are not driving irregular migration. 

“High reliance on smugglers does not mean smugglers are causing irregular migration,  it means people on the move have no safe and legal alternatives. When regular pathways shrink, the role of smugglers rises,”says Forin.  “As policymakers gather in Brussels, we hope they will pause to reflect on the reality the data show.” 

“The evidence is clear: enforcement alone backfires,” concludes Forin. “If policymakers don’t address why people turn to smugglers, they end up strengthening the very networks they’re trying to stop. To truly reduce smuggling, policymakers must reduce the need for it – by expanding regular migration options, ensuring functioning asylum systems, and investing in resettlement, humanitarian admissions and labour mobility. It also requires confronting the corruption and collusion among the officials who enable smuggling systems from within.”