Introduction

At the frontlines of shifting US border policy, thousands of migrants waited in Juárez, Mexico, in 2022 for Title 42 to end, under the watch of the Texas National Guard. Migrants have long been at the coalface of policy changes.

The year 2025 began with a sense of shock, disorientation and anxiety about the future. The geopolitical landscape had shifted sharply over the previous year following the election of US president Donald Trump for a second term. Ongoing wars and humanitarian crises continued and deepened, and new conflicts erupted. The humanitarian and development sector experienced a sudden and massive loss of funding due to foreign aid cuts by the US. The risk of an escalating global trade war continues to loom due to the trade tariffs by the US and the multilateral system worldwide is under threat.

Politics are hardening across the globe and, in many countries, migration continues to be the easy scapegoat for a wide range of economic and societal challenges and concerns, such as employment, housing and the cost of living. Coincidence or not, but one year after the so-called year of elections – the theme of last year’s Mixed Migration Review (MMR) – the world finds itself in geopolitical turmoil. How this will impact mixed migration and the lives of people on the move is at the heart of this year’s review.

Since its second edition, released in 2019, the MMR has included a section called Normalising the extreme, which we introduced by referring to the concept of the Overton Window. This is an analytical concept that describes the acceptable range of political discourse and actions in a society, which crops out ideas deemed so controversial and extreme that they will not be taken seriously, let alone become common practice. But the Overton Window continues to shift, allowing formerly fringe ideas and radical actions to fall within its frame, as they become more and more acceptable. Offshore asylum processing, summary expulsions, pushbacks, deportations, suspension of asylum, prolonged detention and even migrant deaths, for example, no longer make headlines, indicating they have turned into mainstream occurrences.

In Washington, a return to an uncompromising hardline migration agenda is now accelerating this process, which is looking likely to threaten the global migration and asylum system. The boundaries are now being redefined so rapidly that the normalisation might no longer be a gradual, slippery slope, but a sudden paradigm shift. Other countries might be following suit and feeling more emboldened to implement more extreme anti-migration measures: as long as their measures are less extreme than those of the Trump administration, it might fall within the new window of ‘acceptability’. In fact, as one of our interviewees this year warned, we may be witnessing not just a widespread normalisation of human rights violations but a situation where it is becoming ‘trendy’, with governments openly attacking migrants’ rights as part of their political and deterrence strategies.

This is why, in this year’s edition of the MMR, we dedicate a whole essay to this topic, looking back at six years of documenting the normalisation of the extreme but, more importantly, looking forward and exploring whether we are on an irreversible path towards ever harsher measures, or whether it is still possible to shift course.

One factor that could change the current trajectory is the economy. Paradoxically, despite rising anti-migration sentiment, there is a strong need and demand for migrant labour. Politicians in many destination countries struggle to balance their economic and labour policies with a perceived need for harsh anti-migration measures. In the US, this has already led to some clashes between the Trump administration and his Make America Great Again supporters.

Nevertheless, the global migration and asylum system appears to be at a turning point. Long-simmering debates – particularly since the arrival of a large number of refugees and migrants in Europe in 2015 and 2016 – have intensified, with growing calls to reform the 1951 Refugee Convention. Among the most contentious issues are the onward movement of refugees through ‘safe’ countries toward preferred destinations and the use of asylum systems by so-called economic migrants. At the time of writing, the US had organised a side event at the UN General Assembly to initiate a consultation process aimed at reform.

This happens against the backdrop of the massive cuts in foreign aid, not only by the US but by almost all traditional donors, most of whom are North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) members now committed to significantly boosting their military spending in response to the threats posed by Russia and pressure from the US. At the same time, the erosion of multilateralism is fragmenting the very frameworks that underpin global migration governance. In combination, this will affect mixed migration dynamics and migration governance in many different ways, in some places increasing displacement while in others constraining movement.

One year after the ‘year of elections’, we also take a look at the political landscape, asking how far campaign promises on migration have translated into practice and explore the growing role of artificial intelligence in shaping – and surveilling – mobility.

Throughout the report, interviews with policy makers, UN leaders, academics and activists aim to further enrich and provoke the migration debate, while a series of Thematic snapshots provide rapid updates on a range of timely topics – from returns to Syria to Spain’s divergent approach to migration and the deportations from Iran to Afghanistan.

The forces driving people to move are persistent and, in places, intensifying. Conflict continues and escalates in the Middle East, with no durable peace in sight. Violence in parts of the Sahel and Sudan, instability in Myanmar, climate shocks in South Asia and deepening economic crises from Venezuela to Lebanon are all driving both mobility and (forced) immobility. As in previous years, the Keeping track sections provide a full overview, offering a regional year-in-review, including snapshots of shifting routes, risks and responses.

In this year of geopolitical turmoil, ‘Voices on the Move‘ captures the deeply personal but unmistakably global stories of five migrants, including how the current geopolitical climate is shaping their daily lives and futures, while also sharing their important insights into the ways they think migration systems can be improved.

As always, five prize-winning essays from young Global South writers offer emerging perspectives often absent from Global North-dominated migration discourse.

This year’s 4Mi data section provides unique and clear insights into how over 6,000 refugees and migrants around the world are experiencing the direct and indirect impacts of the wide range of measures taken by the new US government, ranging from restricted migration routes and cuts to foreign aid to the closure of resettlement opportunities and increased xenophobia.

As we approach the end of 2025, the outlook for global migration governance is undeniably bleak. Across many regions, policies are hardening and the pull towards ever harsher and more extreme measures feels relentless. The temptation to treat migrants and refugees as threats rather than human beings with rights is becoming deeply embedded in political discourse and practice. Left unchecked, this trajectory risks making the erosion of rights appear inevitable.

Yet none of this is set in stone. It remains possible to shift course – to pull the window of what is acceptable back towards proportionality, legality, protection and rationality. Evidence of this possibility exists all around us. As this year’s Resisting the extreme section illustrates, resistance is not only imaginable but real.

Courts, for example, have intervened to block unlawful measures and reaffirm the primacy of international law – from France’s historic recognition of refugee status for Palestinians fleeing Gaza to repeated rulings in Italy and the European Court of Justice striking down the government’s plan to hold asylum seekers in offshore facilities in Albania. Some countries, too, are exceptions to the prevailing trend: Spain’s ambitious regularisation programme shows that governments can choose inclusion over exclusion. Activists are also on the frontlines: in the US, protests against raids and detention – often uniting faith groups, labour unions and lawmakers – have challenged abuses and mobilised solidarity. At the community level, places like Lampedusa – recognised for their ‘gestures of hospitality’ – demonstrate how humanity can thrive even in the most pressured border zones.

It is important not to lose hope. These examples – from courts to governments, from activists to communities – remind us that a different way forward is possible. The MMR does not offer easy answers, but it does aim to clarify the stark choices before us. Political leadership, evidence-based policymaking and the courage to defend rights even when unpopular will all be essential. By bringing together data, analysis, reflection and the direct experiences of people on the move, the MMR 2025 provides a moment to take stock, to understand where we are and where we are heading. It is an opportunity to clarify the stakes and the choices before us. These are stark, but they are still choices.

Bram Frouws

Author

Bram Frouws is the Director of the Mixed Migration Centre (MMC) and a migration researcher with extensive experience across Africa, Asia, and Europe. He writes widely on migration and displacement, and tweets from @bramfrouws
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