Kenya: climate change, mobility, and conflict dynamics
MECMEA country brief
This country brief examines how drought and other environmental pressures are shaping mobility in Kenya. It shows how repeated shocks are eroding livelihoods and pushing people to move when they run out of options.
The findings are based on 1,067 in-person interviews with Somali and Ethiopian refugees and migrants, who have been exposed to the impacts of climate change such as floods or droughts, between April and May 2025 across three northern and eastern counties of Kenya.
Almost all refugees and migrants in the surveyed locations moved because of prolonged environmental impacts, mainly because of drought, rather than one-off climatic events like flooding. Flooding (26%) and prolonged drought (89%) are the most frequently cited environmental drivers of mixed migration.
Migration is often driven by the need to survive. Some 76% of respondents displaced by drought (n=957) moved after livestock loss and 63% cited crop failure. Most people waited up to two years, until their resources were fully depleted, before they made the decision to move. Migration decisions were also influenced by existing social and community networks.
Not moving (immobility) can be a sign of deep vulnerability. Among respondents who reported that some people in their household stayed behind (n=227), 77% had family members who remained to care for land, 70% to tend livestock, and 48% stayed due to caregiving responsibilities.
Environmental change acts as a threat multiplier, exacerbating the impacts of armed conflict, economic decline, and insecurity. Among respondents who believed that climate factors influenced the conflict drivers that led to their displacement (n=256), 70% reported armed conflict and terrorism as a reason to leave, 56% mentioned political unrest and riots, and 43% reported crime and general insecurity.
People displaced across borders by environmental shocks face considerable abuse and hardship, sometimes from transiting highly insecure geographies to reach places of physical and economic security. Among instances in which respondents perceived abuse and harm (n=378), physical violence (57%), sexual violence (35%), and extortion (56%) were top risks for adults; and of respondents who perceived risk for children (n=735), most cited injury (67%), physical violence (34%), and even death (30%).
Many urgent humanitarian needs are unmet in Kenya. About one-quarter did not receive critical assistance when they needed it along their journey: 77% (n=270) had unmet needs for food assistance, 77% shelter, and 68% medical care, in displacement hubs like Dadaab and Mandera. More staggering, 91% of all respondents said they needed assistance at the time of interview.
Smugglers are profiting from refugees’ and migrants’ vulnerabilities. In the absence of sufficient formal assistance and legal pathways for migration, smugglers are stepping in to charge people for food and medicine, increasing people’s exposure to exploitation and trafficking.
Community-based early warning systems for climate risks exist, but they are underdeveloped. Fewer than half (45%) of all respondents had access to early warning systems, and most relied on traditional knowledge or NGOs, rather than government systems. Even when early warnings were received (n=478), 19% of respondents took no action due to a lack of capacity.
Climate adaptation efforts are insufficient. Communities are trying to cope by changing crops, livestock, and income strategies, but these adaptations often fail. Over 50% of those who attempted to grow new crops (n=418) or keep alternative livestock (n=407) experienced total loss of the newly introduced crops and animals prior to migrating, underscoring the need for climate-resilient infrastructure and livelihoods, as well as more effective social safety nets.
The findings from this paper are used to inform high-level policy dialogues on climate mobility organised in Nairobi and Addis Ababa, as well as national and regional trainings and capacity-building sessions with civil society organisations, local authorities, and regional research and academic institutions, all convened under the MECMEA project.
