Eastern and Southern Africa, Egypt and Yemen, Quarter 4, 2025
Quarterly Mixed Migration Update (QMMU)
October – December 2025
The core areas of focus in this update includes the Eastern route, from East and the Horn of Africa towards the Arabian Peninsula; the Southern route from East Africa and the Great Lakes towards South Africa; the Central Mediterranean Route (also called the Northern Route) towards North Africa; as well as intra-regional mixed migration dynamics. Depending on the quarterly trends more attention may be given to certain countries. Similar updates are available for other regions.
War in Sudan continues to drive displacement: compared to the previous quarter, cross-border movements have increased by 52% in Libya (541,000), 5% in South Sudan (1,269,828), 4% in the Central African Republic (CAR) (47,243), 3% in Chad (904,060), 2% in Uganda (88,532), and 2% in Ethiopia (77,219).
At the same time, this quarter saw increasing return movements to Sudan: in October, a total of 3,027,446 return movements to or within Sudan were recorded, representing a 45% increase compared to September (2,094,516). The vast majority (81%) remain individuals and families who were internally displaced, while 19% returned from abroad, primarily from Egypt, South Sudan, and Libya.
Continued large scale arrests and deportations along the Southern Route: In Q4, authorities from Zambia, Tanzania, Kenya, and South Africa intercepted over 1,500 refugees and migrants, including Ethiopians, Somalis, Bangladeshis, Pakistanis, Burundians, Rwandese, Congolese, and Zimbabweans, while multiple smugglers were also reportedly apprehended.
Call for protection and rights-based approach along the Southern Route: On 18 December, the National Human Rights Institutions of Ethiopia, Kenya, Mozambique, and Zambia issued a joint statement calling for a rights-based approach along the Southern Route, emphasising protection, anti-trafficking measures, asylum access, and cross-border cooperation.
Higher arrival numbers in Comoros along the Western Indian Ocean Route: In late October, approximately 250 individuals from Burundi, DR Congo, and Rwanda arrived on the island of Grande Comore after engaging in risky sea journeys on the Indian Ocean.
The QMMUs offer an update on new trends and dynamics related to mixed migration and relevant policy developments in the region. These updates are based on a compilation of a wide range of secondary (data) sources, brought together within a regional framework and applying a mixed migration analytical lens. Similar QMMUs are available for all MMC regions
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