The core countries of focus for this region are Algeria, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. Depending on the quarterly trends and migration-related updates, more attention may be given to some of the countries over the rest.
Irregular sea arrivals to Italy remained broadly stable in 2025 compared to 2024, following a sharp 58% decline between 2023 and 2024. Libya accounts for most departures this year (88%). Arrivals from Libya and Algeria increased year-on-year by 40% and 43% respectively, while departures from Tunisia fell by 75%.
In 2025, the Western Mediterranean Route became the main route of arrival to Spain, with 19,447 arrivals, surpassing those to the Canary Islands (17,941). While total arrivals to Spain fell by 42% year-on-year (37,080), this masked diverging trends, with WMR arrivals increasing by 11% and arrivals to the Canary Islands dropping by 62%.
Departures from Algeria increasingly dominate the Western Mediterranean Route, with Algerians accounting for 54% of arrivals and Algeria now representing around 75% of departures along the route, up from 40% in 2024. In 2025, 7,321 migrants and refugees arrived in the Balearic Islands, representing a 22% increase compared to 2024.
Amid continuing arrivals from Libya, the Greek Island of Crete recorded a total of 19,857 irregular arrivals this year, marking a 285% increase compared to the just over 5,000 arrivals recorded last year. Various sources indicate the continued persistence of the Libya-Crete corridor, with the vast majority of boats departing from Libya’s eastern coastline, particularly Tobruk.
In October, Libyan authorities launched a new programmeaiming to support the return of migrants to their countries of origin on monthly basis. At the same time, maritime interceptions continued to rise, with at least 26,940 people intercepted at sea and returned to Libya by 27 December, representing a 24% increase compared to 2024.
In early December, Libyan authorities announced that Sudanese nationals fleeing the war would be granted equal rights to Libyan citizens, stating that more than 700,000 Sudanese have entered Libya since April 2023. On 6 December, Libya and Sudan further agreed, in cooperation with IOM, to coordinate the return of nearly half a million Sudanese nationals from Libya. Following this announcement, Libyan authorities reportedly stated that Sudanese nationals would not be expelled, citing the ongoing war in Sudan.
The EU approved its first common list of safe countries of origin in December 2025, classifying Tunisia and Morocco as generally safe and enabling accelerated asylum procedures for their nationals as well as the potential return of third-country nationals who transited through these countries.
Departures from Tunisia shifted toward less monitored coastal areas. Crossings became more costly and dangerous, with a deadly shipwreck off Salakta (Mahdia) in October highlighting the consequences of these shifts.
Organised returns from Tunisia increased over the past two years, with authorities reporting around 10,000 returns by early November 2025, up 38% from 2024 and nearly triple 2023 levels.
Moroccan authorities intensified controls around Ceuta in October, preventing around 550 attempted crossings and relocating intercepted migrants to southern and eastern regions.
Algeria and Spain renewed their migration cooperation framework as Algeria reported facilitating more than 15,500 returns since 2024 and preventing nearly 100,000 onward movements in 2024 alone.
The QMMUs offer an update on new trends and dynamics related to mixed migration and relevant policy developments in the region. These updates are based on a compilation of a wide range of secondary (data) sources, brought together within a regional framework and applying a mixed migration analytical lens. Similar QMMUs are available for all MMC regions
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