Quarterly Mixed Migration Updates, Quarter 1 – 2024 (January-March)
This article presents the key updates on mixed migration from six regions around the world during the first quarter of 2024. Links to the full Quarterly Mixed Migration Updates (QMMU) per region are included below.
Asia and the Pacific | Eastern and Southern Africa | Europe | Latin America and the Caribbean | North Africa | West Africa
Asia and the Pacific
Key Updates Quarter 1 – 2024
- Deportation of Afghans from Pakistan to recommence: The Pakistani government announced plans to expand and expedite the deportation of Afghan refugees as of April 15 as part of Phase 2 of their controversial ‘Repatriation Plan’.
- Rohingya boat arrivals to Indonesia continue: In January, two boats carrying close to 300 people disembarked in the provinces of North Sumatra and Aceh. Tragically, a third boat carrying 151 people capsized near Aceh. 75 people were rescued and 11 bodies were recovered, with the remaining passengers feared dead or missing.
- India pursues hard-line response to Myanmar refugee arrivals: The Indian government has suspended the Free Movement Regime with Myanmar and plans to construct a wall along the India-Myanmar border. Additionally, despite escalating conflicts in Myanmar, India has begun deporting Myanmar refugees from Manipur state as of March.
- Australia’s offshore processing policy resumed in full swing: In February, 43 people, believed to be from Bangladesh, Pakistan and India, arrived by boat in Western Australia. All of them were subsequently taken to Nauru, where they joined 15 people who were already there as of January 4.
- Increased displacement from Myanmar to Bangladesh: Around 300 Myanmar border guards and civilians sought refuge in Bangladesh, only to be deported later. Renewed conflict between Myanmar military and Arakan Army in Rakhine state has prompted calls for Bangladesh to accept more Rohingya refugees.
Thematic Focus: How Myanmar’s new taxation and conscription policies may impact migration dynamics
Read the full QMMU
Eastern and Southern Africa | Egypt & Yemen
Key Updates Quarter 1 – 2024
- The war in Sudan continues to fuel internal displacement and cross-border movements: compared to the previous quarter, cross-border movements have increased by 50% in Egypt (514,827), 47% in Libya (7,610), 36% in South Sudan (629,902), 19% in Chad (730,555), 18% in Ethiopia (119,525) and 14% in the Central African Republic (CAR) (29,444).
- Military campaigns lead to continued decrease in arrivals in Yemen: in January-February, 3,481 migrants entered Yemen, marking an 84% decrease when compared to the first two months of 2023.
- Increased presence of East African arrivals along the Central Mediterranean Route: in contrast to the previous quarter, in Q1, Sudanese, Eritreans and Ethiopians are among the top nationalities to arrive in Italy, despite an overall decrease of 40% in arrivals in the Mediterranean.
- The EU and Egypt sign new migration agreement: In March, the European Union and Egypt agreed on a new deal to collaborate on migration issues in Egypt, and on ‘‘stemming migration from North Africa to Europe’’. The deal includes a EUR 7.4 billion aid package to support Egypt’s economy.
- British parliament votes in favour of Rwanda deal: despite a Supreme Court ruling from last November rejecting the government’s attempts to send migrants, including asylum seekers, from the UK to Rwanda, the British parliament voted in favour of exploring options to overcome the Supreme Court decision in January.
- Ethiopia resumes repatriations from Saudi Arabia: after a similar campaign took place in 2022, Ethiopian authorities announced the resumption of repatriations from Saudi Arabia in 2024. The programme is set to target around 70,000 nationals who ‘‘live in difficult conditions’’.
- Ethiopians and Zimbabweans intercepted along the Southern Route: in Q1, in Kenya, 168 Ethiopians were apprehended while en route to South Africa. Moreover, 159 Ethiopians were intercepted in Malawi, 82 in Mozambique, 342 in Zambia and 10 in Zimbabwe. 52 individuals, of which 49 were Ethiopians and three Zimbabweans were arrested in South Africa for irregular entry and unauthorised work.
Thematic Focus: The new EU-Egypt agreement on reducing migration to Europe
Read the full QMMU
Europe
Key Updates Quarter 1 – 2024
- Changing route usage into the EU: According to Frontex and UNHCR, the data indicates a significant drop of almost 60 per cent (compared to the same quarter in 2023) in detections on the Central Mediterranean route, and 65% on Western Balkans. The Western African and Atlantic routes recorded the biggest rise (391%) and arrivals more than doubled on the Eastern Mediterranean route.
- Mediterranean deaths this quarter: According to the IOM Missing Migrants project, 459 migrants were recorded as having died or gone missing on all the routes related to the Mediterranean this quarter.
- Greek court acquits humanitarian rescue workers: In late January, sixteen aid workers who were involved in refugee and migrant rescues on the Greek island of Lesbos at the peak of the 2015/2016 crisis have been acquitted of espionage charges after 6 years of criminal proceedings.
- EU Ombudsman issues findings on massive 2023 boat tragedy: In late February European Ombudsman Emily O’Reilly released her findings on the June 2023 event in which 650 migrants died, reportedly under the Hellenic Coast Guard jurisdiction. Her report “calls for changes to EU search and rescue rules”.
- EU expansion of ‘external partnerships’: In deals that are becoming more common, in February EU President Ursula von der Leyen, promised Mauritania more than €210 million in new allocations to support Mauritania manage migration. EU-Tunisia migration cooperation deepens with an additional EURO 150 million allocation made in March despite the European Parliament’s concerns. Morocco too remains a major ‘gatekeeper’ for the EU in a new deal expected to be concluded this year. Meanwhile, Italy’s new ‘offload asylum’ deal with Albania was ratified this quarter and the UK government relentlessly pushed their Rwanda plan forward.
- Beefing up Bulgaria’s border with Türkiye: The EU and its border force, Frontex, are planning a major beefing up of border security for Bulgaria.
- Alarming evidence of systematic pushbacks continues: Migrants seeking to cross European borders are systematically being pushed back. In January, the eighth report from Protecting Rights at Borders (PRAB) once again documents how illegal pushbacks and rights violations continue to be widespread and have evolved into an accepted tool for border management, while accountability is even further ‘out of reach’.
- All Finish border crossings with Russia remain shut while Estonia restricts passage: All eight crossing points Finland shares with Russia, along a border of almost 1,400 kilometers are currently closed and will reportedly remain shut up to mid-April 2024. Estonia threatened at the end of November 2023 to do the same – and by February 2024 both Estonia and Russia had closed vehicle passage between their two countries.
Thematic Focus: Russo-Finish border games – more serious than they look
Read the full QMMU
Latin America and the Caribbean
Key Updates Quarter 1 – 2024
- Increase in onward movements among Venezuelan migrants: This quarter saw a rising number of Venezuelans leaving their host countries to move northwards towards the U.S. mainly due to their experiences in host countries and perceived better opportunities in the U.S.
- High volume continues through the Darién Gap: After record-breaking migration through Panama and Colombia’s notorious Darién Gap in 2023, the high volume of migrants has continued into 2024. During the first quarter of 2024, 109,069 people made the treacherous northbound journey.
- Crime continues to drive the Ecuadorian exodus: An increasing number of Ecuadorians are considering emigration: 63 per cent of a sample surveyed by IOM declared their intention to migrate abroad in the next 12 months and, just over half of them, identified the U.S. as their intended destination.
- Mexico’s “containment” strategy exposes migrants to higher risks: Mexico’s strategy of containment or recirculation of migrants inside its territory this quarter puts migrants in considerable danger the longer they remain on the road in the country. Mexico is notorious for the risks migrants face when passing through its states and waiting to cross into the U.S. from northern towns.
- Texas clashes with federal authorities over border control: This quarter saw dramatic developments in the migration standoff in the U.S. between the federal government, the Biden administration and Texas. Texas Governor, Greg Abbott has pushed through a state law that would allow state law enforcement officers to arrest irregular migrants for ‘invading’ their state with a possible 20 years stint in prison if convicted.
Thematic Focus: Mexico’s containment practices as an attempt to prevent mixed migration into the U.S.
Read the full QMMU
North Africa
Key Updates Quarter 1 – 2024
- Since the eruption of the Sudanese war in April 2023, new mobility patterns are emerging: with a growing number of Sudanese refugees now heading to Libya and Tunisia. For further details, refer to the Thematic Focus on page 14.
- New investigation denounces Frontex for sharing the location of migrant boats with the Libyan armed group Tareq Bin Zayed (TBZ), despite awareness of human rights violations: According to a new investigation by Lighthouse Reports and Der Spiegel, Frontex shared approximately 2,200 times the location of migrant boats with Libyan coastguards over the past three years. Frontex reaffirmed its obligation to share migrant boat locations in Libyan waters with authorities.
- Maritime irregular migration from Tunisia to Italy decreased: with 11,055 sea arrivals in Italy, marking a 60% decrease compared to the same period last year. The decline might suggest a shift in migration patterns, with Libya now again the main departure point, instead of Tunisia in 2023. It is worth noting that Libya saw a slight increase in overall departures this quarter, with decreasing departures from the East and increasing departures from the West. The decrease of departures from Tunisia is attributed to intensified border security measures by Tunisia and adverse weather conditions, with further decreases anticipated throughout 2024. On 26 March, the Tunisian Interior Minister met the new Italian Ambassador to Tunisia. Both parties discussed efforts in combating irregular migration.
- The European Commission’s decision to disburse 150 million euros to Tunisia has stirred controversy: The European Parliament passed a resolution criticizing the lack of transparency and expedited procedures, with MEPs questioning Tunisia’s evaluation on key criteria such as human rights and democracy. MEPs are demanding written responses before the current mandate ends in April, just ahead of the June 2024 European Parliament elections. This development hints at obstacles in future EU-Tunisia negotiations and the disbursement of funds.
- Morocco commended by Spain for its deployment of a permanent coastguard, contributing to a decrease in sea arrivals in Ceuta and Melilla: amid a broader increase in arrivals to Spain. Nevertheless, concerns are growing over Moroccans attempting dangerous sea crossings into Ceuta by swimming. On the other hand, land arrivals to the enclaves have surged, with over 1,100 migrants intercepted on New Year’s Eve alone.
- Algeria is collaborating with Tunisia and Libya to address irregular migration and cooperate on border security in North Africa: The inaugural meeting of the Bilateral Commission for Common Border Development between Algeria and Tunisia focused on strengthening shared border areas against security threats, including irregular migration. Meanwhile, trilateral discussions among Tunisia, Algeria, and Libya aim to address economic and security interests, particularly regarding irregular migrants.
Thematic Focus: The Sudan war and the expanding Sudanese mobility toward Libya and Tunisia
Read the full QMMU
West Africa
Key Updates Quarter 1 – 2024
- Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger withdraw from ECOWAS, adding uncertainty to regional mobility and migrant protection: On 28 January, ECOWAS founding members Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger announced their withdrawal from the organisation. While it is too early to fully understand the withdrawal’s impact on regional mixed migration trends, some obstacles to regular movements have emerged. In February, expulsions from Côte d’Ivoire of citizens of the three countries have been reported. Furthermore, Burkina Faso passed a law introducing new visa and residence permit requirements upon entry into the country, including for ECOWAS citizens.
- Worsening security situation in the Central Sahel (Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso) increases displacements towards coastal countries: As the humanitarian situation is worsening, some 17 million people require assistance and protection in the three countries. In the past 12 months, IOM reported an increase in refugee movements from the Central Sahel and towards Côte d’Ivoire, Togo, Ghana, and Benin. 87,000 people are reported seeking refuge in the northern regions of these four countries, predominantly women and children.
- Northbound mixed migration from Niger further increased after the abrogation of the EU-supported anti-smuggling law 2015-36 by the military leadership: According to IOM, the number of registered individuals leaving Niger increased from 50,195 in January 2023 to 125,249 in January 2024. Even with the abrogation of law 2015-36, the route through the desert towards Libya remains dangerous.
- New migration agreement concluded between Mauritania and EU: During the first quarter, a shift in countries of departure on the Atlantic Route from Senegal to Mauritania was observed. On 7 March, the EU and Mauritania announced a new joint declaration establishing a migration partnership to create job opportunities, promote the protection of asylum seekers and refugees, support legal migration, prevent irregular migration and support strong border management. This declaration was adopted after the EU had announced a EUR 210 million package for migration management, humanitarian aid and opportunities for youth on 8 February 2024.
- Atlantic Route to the Canary Islands busiest migration route to enter the European Union in the first two months of 2024: The Spanish Ministry of Interior reported 13,115 arrivals to the Canary Islands in the period of 1 January – 31 March, an increase of 502% compared to the same period last year.