The populist right strengthened by terror acts: Germany pushed towards major changes
On 23 August during a festival in Solingen, Germany, a mass stabbing attack which killed three people and injured another eight had direct political, policy and possibly electoral repercussions. However, unlike in the UK—where a July stabbing outrage was falsely attributed to a Muslim asylum seeker, which in turn triggered multiple protests and riots—the perpetrator of the Solingen attack was a Syrian asylum seeker. Initially, the man had been scheduled for deportation to Bulgaria, based on the Dublin regulation. Nonetheless, he went off the radar and the state failed to carry out his deportation within the necessary timeframe. After that window of time had elapsed, Germany became responsible for the claim, and the man was granted subsidiary protection. The Islamic State reportedly claimed responsibility for the Solingen attack, stating that the perpetrator was one of its ‘soldiers’.
Disproportionate media attention on ‘terror’ attacks involving refugees.
‘Terror’ attacks involving refugees or asylum seekers—although a rare occurrence—often receive a disproportionate level of media attention, which both generates and reflects social and political agitation around immigration and asylum. The Solingen attack “shook” Germany “to its core” but, by contrast, Germans remain less moved by reports of the doubling of attacks on refugees and asylum seekers in Germany and by Germans, between 2022 and 2023. More specifically, German police reported an alarming number of registered attacks targeting refugees last year: a total of 2,378, up from 1,248 in 2022. Apparently, at least 219 people were injured in the 2023 attacks, most of which were committed by right-wing extremists.
Terror attacks and their impact on right-wing political gains
Assessing both successful and failed terror attacks across German municipalities, researchers have recently found that successful attacks have led to significant increases in the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) populist party’s vote share in state elections, despite the fact that most attacks were committed by right-wing nationalists against migrant communities.
Ironically, the findings indicate that the media put emphasis on migration issues rather than on the right-wing activists to blame for the attacks. Their conclusions are that acts of terror can shift a country’s political landscape and have directly helped the far-right in recent years.
Migration at the top of the political agenda
Recent immigration and asylum statistics in Germany are striking and the subsequent sociopolitical reactions, especially in the wider context of migration anxiety in the EU and beyond, are perhaps not surprising. In 2022, Germany took in more than 1.2 million refugees (mainly Ukrainians) while, in 2015, it welcomed more than one million refugees (many of whom were Syrians). Year after year, Germany has taken the largest amount of responsibility with respect to Europe-bound asylum seekers, who initially arrive in other EU countries but are increasingly setting their sights on Germany as their country of choice. Germany accepts and hosts more refugees than any other European country, and almost a third of all EU asylum applications in 2023 (334,000) were made in or to Germany.
The latest terror attack took place in late August—only days before state elections in Thuringia and Saxony (1 September) and weeks before those in Brandenburg (22 September), at a time when immigration and asylum policy is at the top of the national political discourse and the eastern federal states’ political agenda. Despite Germany’s high labour demand—which migrants and refugees are well-placed to meet and have already been meeting—there is evident public concern in Germany about integration, security and the inability to enforce return decisions against failed asylum seekers. This was illustrated in September 2024, when Kenyan President Ruto announced a labour migration deal with Germany that he claimed could allow up to 250,000 Kenyans to obtain visas to work in Germany. Germany immediately denied the numbers involved would be so high, embarrassing President Ruto and illustrating the government’s reluctance to be publicly seen as increasing migration.
A ‘gift’ to anti-migrant politicians
The attack in Solingen and the subsequent claims from the Islamic State were, therefore, a ‘gift’ to anti-migrant proponents in German politics. However, they also spurred every party to display their anti-migration credentials in an effort to outdo one another in what could be described as a bidding battle for the votes of the German public in state elections this year, and in federal ones in 2025.
In direct response to the Solingen attack, the ruling coalition run by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz rushed through tougher migration regulations. Interior Minister Nancy Faeser told reporters in Berlin, “I think we can present a proper package that responds appropriately to this terrible terrorist attack.” Among other measures, the government committed to classifying knife crimes as a reason for deportation, including to Syria and Afghanistan; scrapping benefits for asylum seekers the state deems should seek protection in the EU country they first entered under the Dublin Regulation; and removing protected status from refugees who leave Germany to visit their home countries without a compelling reason. From the middle of September, the German government also reinstated, for an initial six months, border controls with its nine neighbours. Under the new measures, mobile border police units have been deployed to carry out spot checks of travellers and vehicles at Germany’s EU borders. Critics question whether the move will harden into something more permanent, possibly creating a chain reaction of replication by other EU Member States also straining under electoral immigration anxieties.
Although these unilateral border measures are an assertive move by the government, some analysts calculate that they may result in meagre reductions in migration numbers. Meanwhile, proposals by the opposition Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) and AfD parties go much further and could put both the Schengen agreement and the long-supported Common European Asylum System (CEAS) at risk, should they do well in 2025’s elections.
In the wake of the August attack, the far-right AfD boosted its already fast-rising ascendence by emphasising the ‘dangers’ of refugees, Islam, excessive welcoming of refugees and migrants, and weakness around return and barring irregular migration. The AfD’s success was unprecedented, with an outright win in Thuringia and a close second position in Saxony and Brandenburg—giving the party significant political power in all three regions. The AfD was predicted to do even better, and its increased popularity has been causing political shock waves through mainstream parties, whose primary response has been to rush to implement stricter immigration policies or, in the case of opposition parties like the CDU, call for more stringent measures. According to some analysts, “German officials are scrambling to show they have not lost control over migration and are addressing the public’s concerns regarding the rising number of arrivals.”
Popularity for populist far-right solutions to perceived migration problems is driving all parties to embrace concepts and measures that, until recently, were dismissed as conflicting with European values.
Popularity for populist far-right solutions to perceived migration problems is driving all parties to embrace concepts and measures that, until recently, were dismissed as conflicting with European values. The fact that the CDU itself was Chancellor Merkel’s party, which once welcomed so many refugees in 2015, is an indication of how much policies, public opinion and political support have changed both in Germany but also throughout the EU. Electoral outcomes in Germany in 2024 could further reinforce and normalise this trend, which could result in yet more extreme positions in 2025. Any further terrorist attacks by refugees or asylum seekers and, indeed, those against refugees and migrants in-country will only accelerate this trend.