Quarterly Mixed Migration Updates, Quarter 3 – 2024 (July-September)
This article presents the key updates on mixed migration from six regions around the world during the third quarter of 2024. Links to the full Quarterly Mixed Migration Updates (QMMU) per region are included below.
Asia and the Pacific | Eastern and Southern Africa | Europe | Latin America and the Caribbean | North Africa | West Africa
Asia and the Pacific
Key Updates Quarter 3 – 2024
- Escalating threat of deportation for Afghans in the region: This quarter, Iran announced plans to deport 2 million Afghans by March 2025, while Pakistan advanced on its repatriation plan affecting around 800,000 Afghans in the country. In Europe, Germany resumed deportations of Afghan nationals for the first time since August 2021.
- Rising violence and hostility towards Afghans in Iran: Reports indicate a surge in anti-Afghan sentiment in Iran, marked by increased violence and hostility against Afghan migrants, including physical assaults and discrimination in accessing essential services.
- Ongoing Humanitarian Crisis in Rakhine State: The situation in Myanmar continues to deteriorate, with drone strikes causing civilian casualties including among the Rohingya population.
- Over 320,000 people displaced due to heavy flooding in Southeast Asia: Severe flooding has displaced over 320,000 people across Southeast Asia in July and September, creating widespread challenges and hindering access to essential services for vulnerable populations, including refugees and internally displaced people.
- Escalating risks for migrant workers from Myanmar amid crackdowns in Thailand: Nearly 200,000 Myanmar nationals were detained during a 120-day crackdown in Thailand, who now face deportation and a two-year work ban. Rights groups within Thailand and the international community have highlighted Thailand’s obligations to uphold the international principle of non-refoulement and have raised significant concerns over their safety if repatriated.
Thematic Focus: Afghan migrants face despair as Iran intensifies deportations and anti-migrant sentiments grows
Read the full QMMU
Eastern and Southern Africa | Egypt & Yemen
Key Updates Quarter 3 – 2024
- The war in Sudan continues to fuel internal and cross-border displacement: Compared to the previous quarter, cross border movements have increased by 140% in Egypt (1,200,000), 43% in Uganda (57,017), 11% in South Sudan (803,341), 10% in Central African Republic (CAR) (35,228), 7% in Chad (652,496), 7% in Ethiopia (60,688), and 3% in Libya (98,700).
- Increase in Sudanese arrivals in Libya: In Q3, UNHCR noted up to 350 Sudanese are entering Libya daily through the Alkufra border entry point, overwhelming the existing infrastructure. Reports furthermore cited increased movements towards coastal cities in northern Libya.
- Extended military campaigns lead to continued decrease in arrivals in Yemen: In July-August 2,976 migrants entered Yemen, marking a 78% decrease from the same period in 2023. In Q3, two boats capsized off the coast of Yemen, with at least 54 migrants drowning. At the start of Q4, a double shipwreck incident occurred off the coast of Djibouti, involving boats on a return journey from Yemen, causing at least 45 fatalities and 111 missing.
- Continued mass arrests in Saudi Arabia: Similar to Q2, mass round ups and arrests of mainly Ethiopians and Yemenis in Saudi Arabia continued, with 15,324 individuals apprehended for allegedly breaching residency, work and border security regulations.
- Migrants intercepted along the Southern Route: In Q3, several groups of Ethiopians and other nationalities were apprehended while en route to South Africa in Kenya, Tanzania, Zambia, Mozambique, and South Africa. Furthermore, Zambian authorities reported deporting 577 Ethiopians over a six month period between February-August 2024.
- Migrants intercepted along the Western Indian Ocean Route: In Q3, several groups of migrants from the Great Lakes region, The Comoros and Madagascar were intercepted while en route to or after arrival in the French department of Mayotte, in The Comoros, Madagascar, and Mayotte. Moreover, Comorian authorities proceded to legal hearings in the first-ever court case against two smugglers, after new anti-smuggling legislation was promulgated in July.
Thematic Focus: Mixed Migration along the Western Indian Ocean Route
Read the full QMMU
Europe
Key Updates Quarter 3 – 2024
- Frontex reports a 39% decrease in irregular border crossings during the first eight months of 2024, compared to the same period of 2023: The Western Balkans (-77%) and Central Mediterranean route (-64%) experienced the biggest drops. By comparison, arrivals on the Eastern Mediterranean route, the Atlantic route, and via Eastern land borders increased.
- UNHCR counted an increase in deaths and disappearances by the third quarter of 2024, compared to the first half of the year: Despite a decrease in recorded movements on the Central Mediterranean route, fatalities rose by 18% (from 645 to 759). On the Western Mediterranean route, recorded deaths and disappearances increased by 6% (from 203 to 216), while the Atlantic route saw a sharp rise, with a 130% increase (from 320 to 736).
- Samos’ Closed Controlled Access Centre labelled “dystopian nightmare”: Amnesty International, in a July 2024 report, criticized the EU-funded refugee camp on Samos as a “dystopian nightmare” due to poor conditions and allegations of unlawful detention, echoing concerns raised by the Council of Europe.
- Trieste residents protest for proper shelter for migrants: In August 2024, Trieste residents protested by sleeping in the streets to demand proper shelter for migrants, raising concerns over inadequate facilities for those arriving via the Western Balkans Route.
- Frontex chief denies that migrant rescue ships act as “pull factor”: In September, Frontex Executive Director Hans Leijtens stated that NGO rescue ships in the Mediterranean do not encourage migration, countering claims made by Italy’s far-right government.
- Spain faces political tensions over migrant arrivals in Canary Islands: In Q3 2024, Spain faced growing political tensions as arrivals in the Canary Islands overwhelm reception facilities.
- Poland approves use of live ammunition at Belarusian border: On July 12, , Poland passed a controversial law permitting security forces to use live ammunition “preventively” or in “self-defence” at the Belarusian border.
- Finland enacts law allowing for suspension of asylum procedures: On July 12, , Finland passed a law enabling the suspension of asylum procedures at the Finnish-Russian border in cases, justifying the measure as a response to “hybrid threats” from Russia.
- Calls for urgent protections for asylum seekers in the UK amid far-right attacks: In early August 2024, following violent far-right attacks on hostels housing asylum seekers, over 50 refugee organizations urged the UK Home Office to improve safety protocols.
- Germany tightens border controls and ramps up deportations: On September 16, , Germany introduced checks at all land borders to reduce irregular migration and enhance security, following concerns after a series of attacks allegedly linked to foreign nationals.
- Stranded migrants in Cyprus buffer zone continue to spark tensions: Nearly 70 asylum seekers remain stranded in the UN-controlled buffer zone between the Turkish-occupied north and the internationally recognized south of Cyprus. Cyprus continues to face criticism for alleged pushbacks and human rights violations, while maintaining that Türkiye should be responsible for handling the asylum seekers.
Thematic Focus: Cyprus’ migration dilemma: hardline measures, regional conflict and rising pressures
Read the full QMMULatin America and the Caribbean
Key Updates Quarter 3 – 2024
- Electoral upheaval in Venezuela created concerns that migration would increase significantly, but this did not materialise during this quarter: The number of new arrivals of Venezuelans to Colombia increased by about 7% between July and August 2024, significant, but not outside of the typical range of arrivals per month over the whole of 2024.
- Numbers of people at the Darien decreased substantially, but “shut down” remains elusive: Following his inauguration on July 1, Panamanian President Mulino faced the challenge of implementing his campaign promise of “shutting down the Darien.” Some pathways have been physically blocked with barbed wire and some migrants have been deported. Encounters in the Darien show a substantial decrease, from an average of more than 30,000 per month in the first six months of the year to 20,519 in July and 16,603 in August. However, it is unclear what additional measures may be taken, including which migrants may be targeted for deportation.
- Arrivals at the US Southern border decreased considerably: In July 2024, US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) encountered 107,503 migrants on the Southern border, a small figure compared to a peak of 301,982 in December 2023. In July 2024, 56,399 people crossed the US border without approaching an official port of entry and ended up in custody, the lowest number since September 2020. However, civil society organisations such as WOLA and Human Rights First have raised questions about the human costs of the policies that drove the decline.
- Ecuador launched a new regularisation process for Venezuelans: After ending a previous regularisation initiative in April, a presidential decree initiated a new effort to provide status to another 100,000 Venezuelans.
- Asylum requests in Mexico declined: According to the Mexican Commission for Refugee Assistance (COMAR by its Spanish acronym), the number of asylum requests in the country has been decreasing. In July and August 2024, 10,706 applications were recorded, compared to 24,666 applications in the same period in 2023, marking a 57% decrease. Migrants have reported barriers to accessing the agency, such as long delays in gaining interviews and not being allowed to be accompanied to the meetings. The agency has reportedly struggled to build its capacity to meet the increasing number of applications over the last decade.
Thematic Focus: Are the Safe Mobility Offices (SMOs) impacting mixed migration dynamics?
Read the full QMMU
North Africa
Key Updates Quarter 3 – 2024
- More Algerians are making their way to Spain from Algeria’s northern coasts. What was once described as an ‘invisible’ route has now become more utilized by migrants, especially Algerians, driven by worsening conditions in Algeria and tightening controls on other North African routes.
- Libya hosts the Trans-Mediterranean Migration Forum (TMMF) shortly before the release of the Secretary-General’s latest UNSMIL report highlighting ongoing violations against migrants. In July, the Tripoli-based government convened leaders from African, Mediterranean, and European states during the TMMF to develop a shared vision for migration management. In August, the Secretary- General’s latest UNSMIL report highlights ongoing human rights violations against migrants, particularly in detention, including arbitrary arrests, exploitation, forced labor, and torture in Libya.
- Sudanese continue to arrive in Libya amidst ongoing war in Sudan. The number of Sudanese nationals in Libya increased by 33% in just one quarter. This increase, primarily observed in Kufra, is linked to the ongoing war in Sudan, with over 97,600 Sudanese refugees estimated to have entered Libya since April 2023. As of August, Sudanese represent 65% of the refugees and asylum seekers population in Libya.
- The number of migrants who crossed into Ceuta from Morocco increases over recent months, amid political tension in Spain. This increase in arrivals is part of a broader trend observed since earlier this year of more and more people attempting to swim into Ceuta. On 15 September, clashes erupted between Moroccan police and migrants attempting to cross by land into Ceuta. These developments have sparked broader debates over Spain’s migration policies amid tensions between the Spanish central government and regional authorities in Ceuta.
- Arrest of Libyan Airline director highlights Libya’s role in US-bound migrant transit via Nicaragua. In response to the rising number of flights from Libya to Nicaragua, Libyan authorities have arrested the commercial director of the Libyan company Ghadames Air in July, charging him with facilitating migrant smuggling. According to La Prensa, Managua is not listed among the official destinations of Ghadames Air but the company operates these flights via non-regular charter flights.
- Algeria-Niger diplomatic relations show fragile improvements, but expulsions persist. Despite a diplomatic visit from Niger’s Prime Minister to Algeria in August 2024, which aimed at enhancing cooperation, expulsions from Algeria to Niger continue, with nearly 20,000 expelled between early 2024 and August. Additionally, new expulsions from Libya to Niger have been reported. Alarme Phone Sahara (APS) has called for an end to mass deportations, arbitrary arrests, and police violence, and the establishment of safe routes for migrants across the Sahara and the Mediterranean.
Thematic Focus: Gradual increase in Algerian migration to Spain: understanding the trends and context
Read the full QMMU
West Africa
Key Updates Quarter 3 – 2024
- Floods across West and Central Africa displaced more than 740,000 people. The floods have impacted at least 4.4 million people and compounded an already severe food crisis in the region, with the number of people facing hunger rising to 55 million. The UNHCR has emphasized the need to include refugees and IDPs in humanitarian responses, as they are often living in precarious conditions with limited access to essential services.
- Senegal intensifies migration control efforts. Senegal continues to intensify its efforts to intercept irregular migrants leaving its shores. In a coordinated effort between various security and defence forces, Senegalese authorities launched “Operation Djoko” on 15 August, aimed at preventing irregular departures from multiple coastal sites.
- Spain strengthens cooperation with West African countries through MoUs on circular migration: In August, the President of the Spanish government conducted a three-day visit to Mauritania, Senegal, and Gambia, signing MoUs with each country on circular migration. These agreements allow workers to temporarily migrate to Spain for employment to address labour shortages.
- The European Union strengthens Mauritania’s migration control capabilities amid new legislation. In July, the EU approved a €15 million grant to the Mauritanian Armed Forces in order to enhance their surveillance and deterrence capabilities. Critics warn that the focus on deterrence could lead to increased interceptions at sea, potentially endangering the lives of migrants and exposing them to human rights violations. In parallel, Mauritania tightened its immigration laws in September 2024. The National Assembly adopted draft law 24-029, which introduces stricter penalties and provides a legal basis for expelling immigrants who violate immigration laws.
- Côte d’Ivoire and Morocco revised travel policies. On 14 August, Côte d’Ivoire announced the reinstatement of visas for citizens traveling to Morocco. The decision reversed a longstanding free movement agreement, citing concerns about counterfeit passports and increasing irregular migration to Europe.
- On 6 July 2024, Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso formalized the Confederation of the Sahel States (AES). The three leaders emphasized an “irrevocable” break from ECOWAS. These developments introduce uncertainties in regional mixed migration dynamics, particularly concerning the loss of access to ECOWAS’s 1979 Protocol on Free Movement of Persons (FMP).