Read the Europe Mixed Migration Update, Q3 2024
In the first four months of 2024, Cyprus saw increasing numbers of irregular sea arrivals from Lebanon, consisting mainly of Syrian nationals. Located just 170 kilometres away, Cyprus is seen as both a lifeline and a gateway to the European Union for many risking the perilous sea journey.
Cyprus is seen as both a lifeline and a gateway to the European Union for many risking the perilous sea journey.
Lebanon, host to over 1.5 million Syrians and 250,000 Palestinians, has experienced increasing political and economic turmoil, that has severely affected both refugee and local populations, along with rising anti-migrant sentiment. Lebanon’s evolving role as a transit and departure point into Europe has added pressure on Cyprus, further exacerbating the challenges posed by overcrowded reception centres and growing hostility toward asylum seekers on the island.
The escalating regional conflict, including Israel’s ground offensive into Southern Lebanon and extensive bombardment campaign across the country – including the capital, Beirut – may well result in increased movement along this route. To date, movements along this route have comprised primarily of Syrians engaging in onward movements from worsening conditions in Lebanon. However considering the current unfolding events, future movements may also include Lebanese nationals who have the means to leave the country, with the number of internally displaced people within Lebanon already estimated at 1 million and with many having been displaced multiple times.
An increase of sea arrivals in the first four months of 2024
For years, Cyprus has consistently hosted the highest number of asylum seekers relative to its population within the EU. In 2023, Cyprus had the highest number of asylum applications in the EU per capita, with around 13,000 per 1 million inhabitants – though this was a significant decrease from previous years. By mid-2024, 5,089 people had applied for asylum.
Source: Cyprus Mail, 24 September 2024
Despite an overall decrease of over 50% in irregular arrivals by September 2024, the early months of the year saw a sharp rise in sea arrivals, peaking at 120-140 per day. By mid-2024, this figure dropped to an average of 60 per week. Most of the boat arrivals came from Lebanon, largely made up of Syrian nationals, driven by worsening economic conditions, aid cuts, anti-refugee sentiment, and escalating tensions related to the Israeli-Hamas conflict.
Cyprus takes an increasingly hardline stance on migration
In early April 2024, following the increase in boat arrivals from Lebanon, Cyprus declared a “state of serious crisis”, urging the EU for assistance. As President Nikos Christodoulides called for the EU to step in, he emphasized the need for EU aid to Lebanon to be conditional on stopping migrant departures and called for designating parts of Syria as safe zones for migratory returns.
Increased maritime patrols and suspension of Syrian asylum applications
In the following weeks, Cyprus intensified its efforts to prevent boats from irregularly reaching the island by deploying a law enforcement vessel off the coast of Lebanon, while advocacy groups reported that refugees were being blocked at sea without food or water. The NGO Alarm Phone criticized the situation, calling it a “cruel game” between Lebanon and Cyprus that puts migrants’ lives at risk. Following reports of Cypriot patrol vessels intercepting boats near Lebanese waters and allegedly using force to turn them back, UNHCR urged compliance with international human rights law. At the same time, Cyprus suspended the processing of asylum applications for Syrians, citing overcrowded reception centres and efforts to classify parts of Syria as safe for repatriation, leaving over 14,000 Syrians in limbo.
People left stranded in UN-controlled buffer zone, denied access to asylum
Additionally, since early June 2024, nearly 30 asylum seekers, including children, have been in limbo in Cyprus’s U.N.-controlled buffer zone between the Turkish-occupied north and the internationally recognized south. The individuals, including people from Cameroon, Iran, Sudan and Syria, risk deportation if they return to the north, which lacks an asylum system. Nearly all of these migrants are reported to have travelled from Türkiye to the self-declared Northern Cyprus and then tried to enter the internationally recognized southern part of Cyprus, where they were blocked by authorities. While the Cypriot government provides humanitarian aid, President Nikos Christodoulides has denied them entry to the south to avoid “the creation of a new route for illegal migration.” Meanwhile, UNHCR has urged Cyprus to process asylum requests even in the buffer zone, as people remain in a vulnerable position amid squalid living conditions and extreme heat. By the end of June, the situation had drawn attention from the EU Commission, which stressed the right to seek asylum.
UNHCR alleged that Cyprus had forcibly removed 25 migrants from government-controlled areas and pushed them into the buffer zone, preventing them from accessing asylum procedures.
By July, UNHCR alleged that Cyprus had forcibly removed 25 migrants from government-controlled areas and pushed them into the buffer zone, preventing them from accessing asylum procedures. Cyprus has denied the allegations and cited the Green Line regulation and a tougher migration policy to justify its actions, with the number of migrants in the buffer zone rising from 30 in May to 59 by late July. In early August, the UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP) echoed concerns about alleged pushbacks, while expressing concerns over the poor humanitarian conditions.
In response to accusations of pushbacks, Cyprus has shifted the blame to Türkiye, arguing that Türkiye, as a safe country, is responsible for providing asylum to migrants within its territory under international agreements with the EU. On August 8, 2024, Cyprus increased security along the buffer zone to prevent crossings from the Turkish-occupied north. In the meantime, the European Commission has once more urged Cyprus to allow the now 70 migrants stranded in the buffer zone to seek asylum, as they have been living in poor conditions for weeks. Some migrants have filed lawsuits, while the Cypriot government continues to refuse entry and plans to reform migration laws to expedite asylum processing and deportations.
Focus on returns and repatriations
The Cypriot government has a high rate of deportations and voluntary returns, with, according to data from the immigration service, 7,456 individuals leaving Cyprus so far in 2024, compared to 6,900 during the same period in 2023. Following a recent suspected terror attack in Germany, attributed by authorities to a Syrian man, Germany’s opposition Christian Democrats are calling for deportations to countries like Syria and Afghanistan, despite safety concerns. This mirrors Cyprus’ stance, as Cypriot officials have urged the EU to reconsider Syria’s status, suggesting some regions could be deemed safe for returns. The European Commission has refrained from declaring any parts of Syria safe for returning refugees, despite growing political pressure.
EU funding amid accusations of human rights violations
Following Cyprus’ call for EU support in April, in the beginning of May 2024, the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and President of Cyprus Nikos Christodoulides undertook a joint visit to Lebanon, unveiling a financial package of €1 billion available until 2027, which includes efforts to tackle border control and smuggling, including support for Lebanon’s armed forces. Human rights groups condemned the EU package, stating that it incentivizes Lebanon’s poor financial management, and its mistreatment of the Syrian community calling it “the latest in a series of bad migration deals.”
Meanwhile, Cyprus was set to receive €30 million in funding from the European Commission to enhance its coastal surveillance system as part of broader efforts to manage migration. The funding was to be used to upgrade electronic surveillance at the country’s sea borders, aiming to prevent irregular immigration and cross-border crime.
Refugees were reportedly forcibly returned to Lebanon by Cyprus and some were deported to Syria, where they faced further mistreatment.
A Human Rights Watch report published on September 4, 2024, alleges that European Union funds provided to Lebanon for border management lack monitoring and may be contributing to the perpetuation of human rights abuses, as both Lebanese and Cypriot authorities are accused of pushing back Syrian refugees attempting to flee via boats. The report highlights that refugees were forcibly returned to Lebanon by Cyprus and some were deported to Syria, where they faced further mistreatment. While both countries deny these allegations, citing migration pressures, the report criticizes the ongoing use of EU funds amid documentation of practices that violate international asylum laws.
In October, the European Court of Human Rights ruled that Cyprus violated human rights by pushing Syrians back to Lebanon without properly assessing their asylum claims or risks they could face. The court found this to be collective expulsion, lacking individual processing and legal safeguards, and that the poor treatment of migrants at sea amounted to degrading conditions.
Impact of the crisis in the Middle East
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In October, with intensifying Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon, an Israeli ground offensive in southern Lebanon, and fears of Lebanon’s political collapse, Cyprus, geographically the closest EU country to the conflict, is preparing for a potential surge in arrivals. The Cypriot government has stepped up military cooperation with international partners, including the U.S., and is readying for increased arrivals under evacuation plans for third country nationals residing in the Middle East, offering temporary safety and facilitating their return home.
Cyprus, with its population of just over a million, is actively preparing to temporarily host evacuees in transit and has activated its Estia plan, which was developed to handle mass evacuations from neighbouring crisis zones. Temporary shelters are being set up near Larnaca International Airport, recalling similar efforts during the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, when Cyprus served as a temporary evacuation point for around 60,000 people. Additional accommodation facilities are set to be prepared on military bases, schools, and sports centres to accommodate evacuees temporarily.
Several countries in Europe and beyond have initiated official evacuations with the assistance of Cyprus as a key stopover point. While the full scale of evacuations is still unfolding, the island has also seen the arrival of Israeli and EU citizens fleeing escalating tensions. Israeli nationals can enter Cyprus visa-free for up to 90 days, whereas Lebanese citizens require a visa prior to traveling to Cyprus. Following Iran’s missile attack, demand for commercial flights from Tel Aviv has surged, with most flights operating at near full capacity. Leaving Lebanon is more challenging due to the suspension of most flights from the country’s main airport. However, private boats, including luxury yachts, have been transporting mostly European nationals from Lebanon to Cyprus, with some operators reportedly advertising these sea journeys on social media. These privately arranged trips are available only to those with sufficient funds, who either have visas or don’t require one to enter Cyprus, making this option accessible to a fortunate few.
Meanwhile, the European Commission announced an additional €30 million in humanitarian aid to Lebanon, bringing the total for 2024 to over €100 million. This funding aims to provide urgent food, shelter, and healthcare to those affected by the ongoing conflict, which has displaced many and caused numerous civilian casualties. Before the escalating conflict, 2 million Lebanese and Syrian refugees were already facing food insecurity.
Securitization over protection in the face of growing migration pressures?
Prior to the current escalations, Cyprus has managed the increasing numbers of irregular arrivals by sea from Lebanon by enhancing maritime patrols, suspending Syrian asylum applications, and increasing returns, which raised serious concerns about compliance with international human rights obligations. EU funding for Lebanon, including for migration management, has continued, amid allegations of human rights abuses. Meanwhile, rising anti-migrant sentiment and economic pressures in Türkiye have made it increasingly hostile for refugees, with Cyprus shifting responsibility to Türkiye for asylum claims from those entering Northern Cyprus. Cyprus’ hardline measures reflect a broader efforts within the EU towards containment, rather than offering protection, even as the drivers of migration – conflict, economic insecurity, and regional instability – persist and are set to worsen.
Given the military escalations in the region, a prolonged crisis would further test Cyprus’ political will to balance migration control with the protection of human rights.
Given the military escalations in the region, a prolonged crisis would further test Cyprus’ political will to balance migration control with the protection of human rights. The country is likely to face increased pressure to provide protection to displaced populations, who may arrive irregularly, exacerbating existing challenges such as limited reception capacity and barriers to accessing asylum procedures.—With the prospect of thousands of Lebanese, Syrians and other third country nationals potentially seeking refuge, Cyprus could draw on its past experience in handling a large-scale evacuations and temporarily hosting people during previous crises—such as the 2006 Lebanon-Israel war – to provide a first point of entry and protection. Long-term hosting of large numbers of displaced people would require EU support and a shift away from the current security-focused approach.
The European Union has also shown its capacity to absorb increased numbers of displaced persons, most recently with the activation of the Temporary Protection Directive for those displaced from Ukraine. While it requires resources and coordination, this capacity is ultimately dependent on political will. In the current climate, with the growing influence of far right and populist movements across Europe, there is a stronger focus on curbing migration, by all means, which raises concerns about access to asylum, protection standards, and the long-term impacts on displaced populations. The key question is whether Europe will prioritize humanitarian principles or continue down the path of restrictive and security-driven responses in the face of high uncertainty in the Middle East.