Venezuelans went to the polls on 28 July for presidential elections. After almost 25 years of rule by the socialist party, surveys showed that between 50 and 60 percent of the population planned to vote for the opposition, hoping for a change in policy. However, the election results announced by the Maduro government –which declared Maduro the winner with 51.2 percent of the votes – differed significantly from the projections and could have major implications for mixed migration in the region. In addition to the importance of the election results, the pre-election atmosphere has also impacted migration dynamics as uncertainty has hung over the country.
Pre-election context and uneven participation
In the run-up to the elections, migration was deeply intertwined with the expected outcome. Many Venezuelans expressed a strong willingness to leave the country should Maduro remain in power. As highlighted in the Americas Migration Brief, an April poll by Delphos revealed that nearly a quarter of Venezuelans would consider emigrating if Maduro remained in power, while a survey by ClearPath Strategies found that 19 percent of those planning to leave would do so immediately and 48 percent would depart within one to six months. By May 2024, Venezuelan migrants and refugees accounted to 7,8 M, according to data compiled by the Inter-Agency Coordination Platform for Refugees and Migrants from Venezuela – most of whom were residing in Latin America and the Caribbean (6,5 M). Prior to the elections, displacement from Venezuela appeared to be slowing, with recent estimates showing a smaller increase in the migrant population, while secondary movements from and between neighbouring countries were increasing.
Conversely, Venezuelans abroad held aspirations of returning if the opposition won. Yet, the ability of migrants to participate in the elections was severely restricted as they were the most likely to vote for the opposition. Only 69,211 Venezuelan migrants were registered to vote, highlighting systemic obstacles including arbitrary definitions of legal residence abroad, the absence of diplomatic missions in some countries and the requirement to present a valid passport – a challenge for many Venezuelan migrants.
Faced with these obstacles, some migrants temporarily returned to Venezuela to vote, despite the risks involved. According to the Colombian authorities, more than 5,200 Venezuelans travelled to Venezuela between 20 and 27 July to vote, despite the Venezuelan government’s announcement on 26 July that it would close its borders and airspace until the Monday after the elections.
Post-election developments
The days following the elections have been marked by widespread protests in Venezuela, which were met with harsh repression and arbitrary arrests. The UN’s Fact-Finding Mission reported 23 deaths related to these protests between 28 July and 8 August. The mission also noted that at least 1,260 people were detained, including 100 children and adolescents and 160 women.
Protests against the election results have not been limited to Venezuela. Venezuelan migrants around the world have taken to the streets to express their dissatisfaction with the outcome. International responses, including from the United States, the European Union and countries in the region, conveyed concerns over the credibility of the announced results and underscored the importance of transparency in the electoral process.
Current mixed migration trends
At present, humanitarian organizations at the borders have not reported any significant migratory movements, which have “remained at low levels” following the elections. There have also been notable developments, such as the suspension of direct flights between Venezuela and the Dominican Republic, Panama and Peru, which could further complicate migration patterns. Venezuela has suspended diplomatic and consular relations with Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, Peru, Panama, the Dominican Republic and Uruguay in response to these countries´ reactions to the election results. Despite these disruptions, the borders between Venezuela and Brazil and with Colombia remain open.
Implications for countries in the region
While the broader implications for the region have yet to fully emerge, the countries hosting the largest numbers of Venezuelans -Colombia, Peru, Brazil, Chile and Ecuador- are already anticipating the potential impact of the election results.
For example, major movements are expected in the near future. National and local officials, such as Jairo Aguilar, governor of a border department in Colombia, have expressed concern that an arrival of migrants could overwhelm resources and strain health services. Countries like Peru and Chile have increased border control measures. In Chile, this includes the deployment of additional military presence along the northern border.
The Chilean government has also proposed the introduction of a quota system for the distribution of migrants between countries in the region. This proposal mirrors the European Union’s implementation of a quota system designed to distribute refugees among its member states, a ‘solidarity’ mechanism that has been further reinforced by the Migration and Asylum Pact. It remains to be seen whether other South American countries will embrace this suggestion.
The EU’s experience highlights the challenges inherent in enforcing such a system, even within a relatively integrated political and economic bloc. In the context of South America, where regional cooperation on migration has historically been inconsistent and where national interests often diverge, the implementation of a quota system could prove even more difficult. In recent decades, Chile has increasingly adopted policies of securitisation and immigration control. This latest proposal must be understood within this framework, as it reflects the government’s continued emphasis on managing migration through tighter controls and regional burden-sharing.
Implications for migrants
The election result raises several critical concerns for Venezuelan migrants, particularly in a regional context of limited support and increasing restrictions.
The disruption of consular services for Venezuelans in certain countries complicates their ability to obtain and renew essential documentation, affecting ongoing and planned regularisation processes and family reunification. This issue is exacerbated by broader challenges in the regularisation process for migrants. For example, Venezuelan migrants who arrived in Colombia after January 2021 face uncertain legal status, while Ecuador has ended its regularisation programme and Peru and Chile have introduced more restrictive policies. These challenges are likely to be exacerbated by difficulties in obtaining the necessary documents.
In addition, the suspension of direct flights between Venezuela and countries such as the Dominican Republic, Panama and Peru, combined with the increased military presence on the borders of Chile and Peru could further deter Venezuelans seeking international protection, pushing them towards irregular and perilous routes and potentially leading to cases of refoulement or deportation. This comes amid Panama’s actions to close the Darién Gap, an increase in dangerous maritime routes and U.S.-Panama plans to carry out large-scale deportations.
Previous departures have already included individuals from diverse socio-economic backgrounds, with each group facing unique vulnerabilities and challenges. This includes not only those who may leave after the elections but also those who have already left and are now living in precarious situations in host countries. Particular attention should be paid to migrants’ mental health. A 2022 study on the mental health of Venezuelan migrants in Lima and Tumbes (Peru) found that around half of the respondents showed signs of depression and anxiety while 15 percent had contemplated suicide. The election results are causing frustration and disappointment among Venezuelans, heightening concerns about their mental health and potentially exacerbating existing issues.
As conditions worsen, the need for comprehensive protection and support for Venezuelan migrants—both those who will be leaving in the coming weeks or months and those who have been displaced for years—will become increasingly urgent. This underscores the need for sustained and expanded efforts to ensure their safety, legal status, access to essential services and socio-economic integration opportunities in reception countries.
Conclusion
Recent media coverage and discussions have focused on the potential scale of emigration from Venezuela, underscoring the volatile and highly unpredictable nature of the situation. Based on migration intentions prior to the elections, the results could indeed prompt an increase in emigration from Venezuela if Maduro remains in power. Considering the heated and emotionally charged nature of the immigration debate in the US, increased movements from Venezuela could intensify the debate, especially with the upcoming elections in the US where migration is a key topic.
Nevertheless, this is not the only factor to be considered. If these movements are driven by a violent crackdown and persecution of opposition supporters by the government, it could have important implications for the status of these Venezuelan migrants. Currently, most individuals who have left Venezuela are not granted refugee status, primarily because their migration was driven by economic circumstances. If persecution becomes a primary factor, the need to recognise these individuals as refugees becomes even more urgent.
It should be noted, however, that increased emigration is not the only potential outcome. Although more Venezuelans might desire to migrate due to repression and violence, not all will have the resources to do so, given the costs involved and the tightening restrictions in Venezuela and neighbouring countries. This could result in a large population of involuntarily immobile people. It is therefore crucial to ensure that Venezuelans still in the country are not overlooked. Finally, although it seems less likely at this moment, a successful opposition outcome could renew the willingness of some Venezuelans to return.
Regardless of these scenarios, it is important to remember that Venezuelans are already the largest migrant population in the region and face significant challenges. Instead of concentrating solely on migration scenarios, it is essential to address the immediate protection needs of migrants and to strengthen both regional and international cooperation, as requested by the Inter-Agency Coordination Platform for Refugees and Migrants from Venezuela. By focusing on these priorities, policymakers can better support the Venezuelan migrant population and work towards effective solutions to their ongoing issues.